Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 116.452741 133.206563 152.037796 174.870706 201.937434 233.159333 272.131139
2026-01-25 93.789226 114.947250 140.805152 175.084175 219.861616 277.105225 357.028720
2026-02-01 78.334226 100.836875 130.047898 171.413465 229.582076 310.168124 433.349381
2026-02-08 67.424270 90.171066 121.131465 167.353912 236.392140 338.691798 507.737959
2026-02-15 59.342498 81.900895 113.837815 163.694733 242.121690 365.390028 583.847530
2026-02-22 56.438706 80.382182 115.650402 173.276684 268.935959 428.965765 734.902015
2026-03-01 52.189513 76.270100 112.918824 175.128041 283.221461 474.068904 864.215731
2026-03-08 48.704227 72.865918 110.755745 177.385666 298.238307 522.887368 1013.170116
2026-03-15 45.220382 69.058592 107.440448 177.094316 308.418614 564.317225 1157.986272
2026-03-22 43.935077 68.629711 109.567675 186.521643 338.109986 649.949285 1427.215369
2026-03-29 42.467244 67.720501 110.721432 194.238428 365.679132 737.115222 1730.211488
2026-04-05 40.898252 66.466293 111.093230 200.449567 391.154301 825.366132 2068.908324
2026-04-12 38.811770 64.197297 109.541835 202.983457 409.954136 904.437358 2420.335457
2026-04-19 36.583844 61.480641 106.892054 202.959882 423.167297 973.514489 2774.065522
2026-04-26 34.048356 57.984204 102.415956 198.521137 425.357965 1014.797943 3057.098521
2026-05-03 31.723277 54.687470 98.011054 193.670398 425.729208 1051.408831 3342.536585
2026-05-10 29.681789 51.761235 94.059759 189.310462 426.552101 1089.585698 3654.075876
2026-05-17 29.432296 52.232587 96.946440 200.726905 470.021114 1266.419174 4630.610418
2026-05-24 28.289064 50.865590 95.926168 202.935299 489.459615 1374.920675 5387.731918
2026-05-31 27.274612 49.672424 95.153136 205.629564 510.831026 1496.841262 6301.619120
2026-06-07 26.075240 48.015908 93.239340 205.281785 523.456171 1592.944621 7161.083666
2026-06-14 25.886785 48.407472 95.805630 216.544963 573.110291 1842.166952 9128.964475
2026-06-21 25.522859 48.402242 97.486813 225.779800 618.802492 2095.883076 11432.333347